Contract number

V4-1809

Department:

Department of Animal Science

Type of project

ARIS projects

Type of project

CRP projects

Role

Lead

Duration

01.11.2018 - 31.10.2021

Value of co-financing

€88,400.00

Total

€130,000.00

Project manager at BF

Žgajnar Jaka

ABSTRACT

Modern approaches of result-oriented agricultural policy gain on importance, which reflects also in the increasing need for micro-simulation tools that enable different impact assessment of policies at the level of agricultural holdings. Such models enable better understanding of decision-making and management at the level of agricultural holdings, and on the other hand enable policy-makers to make better decisions. Agricultural models have thus become an important tool in the last 15 years and present major activities of agricultural economists.

In the framework of the proposed project, we will define typical agricultural holdings that will best reflect the situation in Slovenian agriculture. In such a manner, individual production types will be divided further both by economic size and production technology, which is often regionally conditioned. Taxonomy will be carried out by analysing the latest results at the level of standard outputs of all agricultural holdings in Slovenia and discussed and harmonised with governmental and non-governmental experts. For this purpose, we will organize special one-day workshops.

Individual types of agricultural holdings will be defined at the level of the annual production plan, considering key production activities and different groups of production constraints that individual farm face. Furthermore, for the needs of this project, we will upgrade the already developed farm model (MKMG), both by adding new production activities and technologies as well as by expanding the range of production constraints in order to be able to analyse all defined agricultural holdings.

In addition, the system of model calculations (MK) will be further upgraded and adapted, with particular emphasis on the integration of new production activities, technologies and production intensities that are still needed for the proper functioning of the farm model. Additionally, simplified environmental indicators will be added at the level of model calculations for key production activities, which will enable holistic analysis along the already included economic indicators. For the needs of ex-post and ex-ante analyses at the level of agricultural holdings, we will develop additional independent modules within the framework of farm model (MKMG). In cooperation with the financer of the project, we will prepare scenarios of the expected possible versions of CAP measures after 2021 and will test them on selected production types of agricultural holdings. In the case that a strategic plan for Slovenia will be already agreed, the scenarios outlined in it will be prioritized in the design of the scenarios. Special attention will also be paid by aggregating the results of key farm production types at the level of the sector or at national level.

 

THE PHASES OF THE PROJECT AND REALIZATION

The research project is designed in the form of five work packages (WP), which are further subdivided into individual tasks (T) or sub-tasks within a single work package. The key phases of the project and their realization is as follows:

  • (WP1) - Defined and formed key production types of agricultural holdings in Slovenia representing Slovenian agriculture both in size and technological-production dimension.
  • (WP2) - Adjustment and upgrading of the agricultural holdings model (MKMG) for the systematic analysis of typical farms, which, in addition to economic ones, also includes some environmental indicators, and enables static scenario analysis. Based on the concept of mathematical programming, a dynamic analysis of changes on a particular farm type depending on changed circumstances will also be enabled.
  • (WP3) - Extension and adaptation of model calculations (MK) for key production activities, which should allow simulation of the economic situation at the farm level. At the level of production activities, selected environmental parameters will be added to monitor the sustainable aspect of agricultural production.
  • (WP4) - Monitoring of the economic situation and its trend for defined types of agricultural holdings for the period 2017-2019. Evaluation of selected environmental parameters at the level of production activities and aggregated at the level of the individual farm level.
  • (WP4) – Impact assessment of agricultural policy after 2021 based on scenario analysis for selected farm types.
  • (WP5) - Aggregation of the results of typical farms according to product orientations and size structure for the scenario assessment for the effects of agricultural policy after 2021.

SICRIS link